College applicant pool to shrink, experts say
by Ahmed N. Mabruk | Harvard Crimson (Harvard University)
Issue date: 3/12/08 Section: News
(U-WIRE) — In as little as two years, expect a lot fewer tears in the college admissions process—unless, that is, you're applying to Harvard University or one of its peers.
The number of graduating high-school seniors is set to decline after peaking at 2.9 million next academic year, according to a report published by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education and cited in The New York Times.
A lower number of seniors is expected to turn into a smaller college applicant pool, which— at least at some schools—should make admissions less competitive.
As schools across the country send out decision letters to more than two million high school seniors this spring, the prospect of a less-frenzied college admissions process would be much appreciated, said Jim Conroy, who leads college counseling at New Trier High School, in the north suburbs of Chicago.
"I'm hoping that everything will fall back—the safety schools will be the safety schools [again]," he said.
The changes are rooted in nationwide demographic trends. For one, families are having fewer children, according to Graduate School of Education Professor Thomas W. Payzant.
"If you're thinking about the big picture nationwide, students in the pipeline—in elementary and middle schools—are generating smaller numbers than have been coming up and through high school," said Payzant, who led the Boston Public Schools from 1995 to 2006. "There's no dramatic shift in the dropout rate or graduation rate of students. It's overall demographics."
But Payzant said the shrinking applicant pool won't likely affect the country's most prestigious schools.
"[Less selectivity] will be in a number of places where there has been a lot of ratcheting up of capacity to take more students," Payzant said. "But whether or not those seats can be filled with a student body that can meet the standard may be an issue."
The number of graduating high-school seniors is set to decline after peaking at 2.9 million next academic year, according to a report published by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education and cited in The New York Times.
A lower number of seniors is expected to turn into a smaller college applicant pool, which— at least at some schools—should make admissions less competitive.
As schools across the country send out decision letters to more than two million high school seniors this spring, the prospect of a less-frenzied college admissions process would be much appreciated, said Jim Conroy, who leads college counseling at New Trier High School, in the north suburbs of Chicago.
"I'm hoping that everything will fall back—the safety schools will be the safety schools [again]," he said.
The changes are rooted in nationwide demographic trends. For one, families are having fewer children, according to Graduate School of Education Professor Thomas W. Payzant.
"If you're thinking about the big picture nationwide, students in the pipeline—in elementary and middle schools—are generating smaller numbers than have been coming up and through high school," said Payzant, who led the Boston Public Schools from 1995 to 2006. "There's no dramatic shift in the dropout rate or graduation rate of students. It's overall demographics."
But Payzant said the shrinking applicant pool won't likely affect the country's most prestigious schools.
"[Less selectivity] will be in a number of places where there has been a lot of ratcheting up of capacity to take more students," Payzant said. "But whether or not those seats can be filled with a student body that can meet the standard may be an issue."
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